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Market
Volatility Shouldn't Rattle a Good Financial Plan
On Feb. 27, 2007,
the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 416 points, the biggest
drop since the market reopened after the 9/11 attacks. By
early May, the market had more than made up those losses
and stood at record highs.
How did you react?
Did you turn off the news? Did you call your broker in a
panic? Or did you call your financial planner to see if
your plan was solid?
It's easy to succumb
to the urge to sell if the market takes a header or buy
if it's headed upward. But sudden action is usually a mistake.
In the late 1980s, Harvard psychologist Paul Andreassen
made news with a research project that found that people
who listened to market news actually made lower returns.
Why? Because those who sold – or bought – during a market
swing probably found a day later that the market was really
running on hype, not fundamentals.
You pay a financial
planner to devise a financial strategy that matches your
risk tolerance and long-term financial goals. No, there
is absolutely no way to guarantee that you'll never lose
money. But if a plan truly matches you, the noise level
on TV shouldn't make a difference. So the next time the
Dow spikes or slides, ask yourself:
What's my
plan? If you've worked with a good financial planner,
you should be able to articulate those goals all by yourself
or refer to an investment policy statement you made together.
Much of the riskiest investing, overbuying and panic selling
during the late 1990s and early 2000s could have been avoided
if individual investors had sought advice for achieving
long-term specific goals such as retirement or a college
education.
What's my
risk tolerance? At your first meeting with a planner,
you should have discussed – and later filled out – a form
asking you a number of questions about how you handle risk
and what your expectations were about investment returns.
You might have had to do this more than once if your risk
tolerance was low but your investment expectations were
high – low-risk investors can't expect the highest returns.
That's part of the education process when you visit a planner.
Am I prepared
to stay invested – no matter what? We all remember
the “Tech Wreck” of 2000. At the worst of that downturn,
investors bailed out of the stock market or drastically
cut back, only to get back in after they were “convinced”
that the market was rebounding. In reality, they missed
out on stock market gains during the early stages of recovery,
and that's costly in the long run. Of course, some investors
looking for that late 20 th century investment high also
got into the real estate market, and they perhaps learned
a similar lesson when that market started heading south
two years ago.
In 2004, SEI Investments
studied 12 bear markets since World War II. Investors who
either stayed in the market through its bottom, or were
fortunate to enter at the bottom, saw the S&P 500 gain
an average of 32.5 percent (not counting dividends) during
the first year of recovery. Investors who missed even just
the first week of recovery saw their gains that first year
slide to 24.3 percent. Those who waited three months before
getting back in gained only 14.8 percent.
Am I diversified?
The NASDAQ lost 39 percent of its value just in
2001, and another 21 percent in 2002. Meanwhile, real estate
investment trusts, which performed poorly in 1998 and 1999
when stocks were booming, had banner years in 2000 and 2001,
performed so-so in 2002, and had an excellent 2003. Bonds
also returned well during the bear market. Your planner,
based on your risk profile, should have you in diversified
investments that fit your goals.
Do I still
feel the same way I used to about returns? Having
a long-term investment plan doesn't mean make the plan and
leave it to gather dust. You and your planner should decide
when it's time for a review of your investment goals and
your feelings about them. An annual conversation makes sense
if nothing's going on, but life events like death, divorce,
kids moving out and illness are good reasons to do a head-to-toe
review of a financial plan.
May 2007 –
This column was authored in cooperation with Financial Planning
Association.
This
material is for informational purposes only and is not intended
to provide specific advice or recommendations to any individual
or group. Before making any financial decisions or commitments,
please consult with your financial professional.
Securities offered through
LPL Financial
, Member FINRA
/ SIPC .
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