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Weekly Commentary - September 13, 2010

The Markets - If you had an extra $1,000, would you use it to reduce debt or would you spend it on something discretionary?

How Americans answer that question may significantly impact economic growth over the next few years, according to an Aug. 20, 2010 report from Federated Investors. If Americans decide to focus on debt reduction that could keep a lid on economic growth in the near term, but would likely be good for the economy over the long term. Conversely, if Americans start spending freely, it may boost short-term growth, but it might delay our day of reckoning and make it worse down the road.

Another factor that comes into play here is demographics. The leading edge of the much chronicled Baby Boom generation is now in its mid-60s and their peak spending years are behind them. When this group hit their peak spending years back in the 1980s and 1990s, the U.S. economy and stock market roared. Now that the cohort is entering their 60s, their spending is slowing down.

Generation X follows on the heels of the Boomers, but their numbers are significantly smaller so they won't be able to pick up the slack.

From a longer-term demographic perspective, the good news is that Generation X is followed by the Millennials. Influential authors William Strauss and Neil Howe define the Millennials as people born between 1982 and 2001. At about 85 million strong, the Millennials are even larger than the Baby Boom generation, according to Advertising Age . As the Millennials reach their peak spending years, we could possibly see another economic resurgence in roughly the 2020-2040 period, according to HS Dent, an economic research and forecasting company.

Demographics help define potential longer-term trends and are useful in putting the current economic environment in context. And, with demographics in mind, Americans may be more likely to save that extra $1,000 instead of spending it on the latest gizmo.

Notes: S&P 500, DJ Global ex US, Gold, DJ-UBS Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three, five, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.

Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron's, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable or not available.

"Anybody who thinks money will make you happy, hasn't got money," according to billionaire David Geffen. Now we have a new scientific study that helps quantify the connection between money and happiness.

Researchers Daniel Kahneman and Angus Deaton of Princeton University analyzed data from the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index and tried to determine how income affects an individual's emotional well-being and overall life satisfaction. They measured emotional well-being as an individual's day-to-day level of happiness (e.g., how much enjoyment, laughter, smiling, anger, stress, or worry they experience each day,) while overall life satisfaction was measured as an individual's satisfaction with their life in general.

Here's what they found.

As a person's annual income rises up to about $75,000, their emotional well-being, or day-to-day happiness, rises, too. But, beyond $75,000 in annual income, there was no additional boost to day-to-day happiness, according to the researchers' article published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and reported by Inc. magazine.

What's the key to $75,000? According to LiveScience.com, “The researchers suggest that making anything more than $75,000 no longer improves a person's ability to spend time with friends, avoid pain and disease, and enjoy leisure time -- all factors involved in emotional well-being.”

Ah, but more money does increase overall life satisfaction. According to the Inc. article, “With every doubling of income, people tended to say they were more and more satisfied with their lives on a 10-point scale -- a pattern that continued for household incomes well above $120,000.”

Do these findings match your life experience? Let us know what you think.

Weekly Focus -- Think About It:

"An object in possession seldom retains the same charm that it had in pursuit."

--Pliny The Younger

Notes:

• The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
• The DJ Global ex US is an unmanaged group of non-U.S. securities designed to reflect the performance of the global equity securities that have readily available prices.
• The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
• Gold represents the London afternoon gold price fix as reported by the London Bullion Market Association.
• The DJ Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
• The DJ Equity All REIT TR Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
• Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
• Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
• Past performance does not guarantee future results.
• You cannot invest directly in an index.

This summary was prepared with assistance from PEAK.

This material is for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations to any individual or group. Before making any financial decisions or commitments, please consult with your financial professional.

Securities and financial planning offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC.

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